Marriage on the Line in California

The state of California is proving itself to be the next battleground in the pursuit of marriage equality. As the California Supreme Court weighs whether or not they will grant full marriage rights and responsibilities to all Californians, anti-gay activists claim they have succeeded in getting the necessary amount of signatures to place the proposed “Limits on Marriage” constitutional amendment on the ballot in November.

Assuming their claim is accurate, the fate of relationship recognition is in the hands of California voters. Here are the various ways California could play out:

1. The Ideal Scenario: Supreme Court grants marriage and the initiative doesn’t have enough signatures to make the ballot.
Thousands of committed couples in California would finally have access to the privilege of marriage and a renewed sense of respect would return to the institution of marriage by those who have been denied for so long. Anti-gay activists would forever cry “judicial activism,” and they would continue to try every year to get on the ballot again, but in the meantime tens of millions of dollars could be saved by not fighting this fight in 2008.

2. The Probable Scenario: Supreme Court grants marriage and the initiative makes the ballot.
If marriage is granted, but the proposed amendment does in fact have enough signatures, then this election season grows even more important than it already is. Conventional wisdom is that money and organization equal victories in initiatives. With the backing of financial juggernauts like Focus on the Family, Family Research Council and Concerned Women for America, the opposition will be well funded and ready to organize from pulpits across the state. Equality advocates from around the country hopefully understand the gravity of this election and will funnel enough money to California to be competitive.

Evangelicals who are less-than-excited with McCain may have more of a reason to head to the polls in November, but if Democrats turn out as much as expected, California will have a chance to join Arizona as the only states to beat back a marriage initiative.

If equality advocates are victorious, the Supreme Court ruling reigns supreme and marriage will be a reality in California.

If the amendment passes, than the California Constitution is amended to say “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.” This would nullify the Supreme Court decision and it would be extremely difficult for marriage equality to be achieved in California for a long time to come.

3. The Definitely Possible Scenario: Supreme Court denies marriage and the initiative makes the ballot.
The costly campaign would still be on but instead of fighting for the ability to get married immediately, Californians would be fighting to stop the amendment in hopes that a defeat would prove to Governor Schwarzenegger that his constituents are in favor of equality and that the next time the legislature puts a marriage bill on his desk, he needs to sign it.